5 years ago, anyone asking this question would have been deemed as a lunatic. Today, after several years of iPhones, iPads, and Androids the question seems almost an obvious one. Almost from nowhere, two worlds emerged in the consumer space: smart phones and slates/tablets (let’s call them tablets). Well, emerged is perhaps not the right word. Boomed is a better one. That’s because those worlds existed before, but they were small compared to their present size.
In order to get to the answer of my question, I’m limiting my analysis to the following markets:
- Desktop PCs
- Laptops
- Netbooks
- Smartphones
- Tablets
- Gaming consoles
Although there are obviously other markets which are important (media players, regular phones, TVs, servers, and others), I consider them secondary from the point of view of my question. First of all, let’s take a look at the current status of the ones I enumerated above.
The desktop PC is still one of the workhorses of today’s IT effort in the world. People use it at the office and at home. It’s still interesting for many reasons like sheer power, multiple (and large) display support, and flexible hardware configuration (to name just a few). Hundreds of millions are in use as we speak. Then we have laptops (and their derivatives, the netbooks) which became quite some time ago valid replacements for desktop PCs. Their main advantage over the desktop? The ability of being moved. Some are a breeze to carry, some are heavy, but still, they can be moved. Some of the lightest configurations one can find today are down to several hundreds of grams (usually around 800, give or take). At the other end of the scale, some of the most powerful ones can easily compete even with server hardware or high-end gaming desktops. What do desktops, laptops, and netbooks have in common? They all have highly productive keyboards and pointing devices. Might seem that I ‘m stating the obvious here, but I think this little detail is an important one.
Now we get to smart phones, which some call the new PC. The amount of power packed in such a tiny space is truly amazing. Functions like media playing and gaming are now in the realm of reality (Angry Birds anybody?). Combine this with touch and you do get killer devices. Despite all of this, the size factor is the ceiling here. Despite its power and capabilities, a smart phone cannot exceed a give size. On the other hand, there are things that you cannot do (at least not in a productive and easy way) unless you reach a certain size (I’m thinking here about keyboards and screen space, for example). That’s why the tablet has become such a popular choice. Extending those limits to values that fall between the ones specific to smart phones and the ones specific to netbooks/laptops makes things like browsing, media playing, and even typing move into the realm of acceptable/enjoyable. What do smart phones and tablets have in common? Obviously, they don’t have highly productive keyboards or pointing devices. Also, they are way more mobile than desktops and even than laptops. And there is one more very important thing: the most popular ones, the ones that have the largest market shares today, are all running OS's initially developed for smart phones. I dare to say, this is the Achile’s heal of most of today’s tablets. Despite of this, tablets might be the one thing that has the potential of making the PC as we know it history.
Finally, we do have the gaming consoles. Building on our almost unlimited need and desire for games, these are devices that had a fabulous evolution throughout the past 10 years. Today, they aim to become almost complete entertainment devices that bring together the game, the media, and the social.
Now that we have the 10000 feet view of the matter, let’s zoom in on Microsoft. Where is the Redmond giant in these games? Let’s start with the easy ones. They own the desktop PC. They own the laptop game too (to a slightly lesser degree, due to the notable exception of the Mac laptops). Interestingly enough, they also have a firm grasp on netbooks too, despite all the analysts who were predicting the death of Windows by the hand of the netbook. Due to the fantastic work Microsoft did with Windows 7, they are still well ahead in the game.
Things get more interesting in the gaming console’s area. Three main contenders, Microsoft, Sony, and Nintendo are fighting the war here. Which is perfect if you ask me. Why? The answer is quite simple: if things were to be different, things like the Wii or Kinect would have probably not been invented yet. Competition is tough, but if and when the gaming consoles will start to be a real threat to the (Microsoft, PC) binom, Microsoft is perfectly positioned to defend the castle. As we’ll see in a moment, this doesn’t automatically mean they will be successful in doing that.
Finally, let’s talk about the hard ones, smart phones and tablets. There is no doubt here, Microsoft is lagging behind. iOS and Android are the pacemakers today when it comes to both smart phones and tablets. And they are hugely successful. Their success is so big that some are wondering whether this is the moment when (Microsoft, PC) will get its coup de grace. I admit, this is by far the most important threat faced so far by Windows as we know it and Microsoft as we know it. There are many reasons for this, and I’m not going to analyze them because it’s written history already. Let me just note that Microsoft was among the early inventers of both concepts (remember Windows Mobile and Tablet PC?), and then it simply failed to bring the game to the next level. It’s also common knowledge that the smart phones train was missed because of Microsoft being paralyzed in Windows Mobile. The tablet train was missed probably because nobody really believed in the potential of such a market. Looking back, one can clearly see what happens when there’s no threat on the horizon. Even powerful giants fall asleep.
So, there is no surprise that many are expecting today no less than the death of (Microsoft, PC). The threat is clear and present, no doubt about it. And it’s amplified (mainly in perception) by the fact that Microsoft is not announcing loudly a clear strategy to fight the tablet war. Makes some people think that folks in Redmond are living in a dream world and lost their sense of reality. Well, I somehow do not buy into this.
My perception is that, on the contrary, the chess is well played now. One of the greatest chess players the world has ever seen used to say that the worst thing you can do after a bad move is to rush in with a fix. Most of the time, it will get you in an even deeper hole. It’s a fact, Microsoft did miss the smart phone train. Because of that, missed the tablet one too. Combined, these are now gaining huge momentum and are sieging Microsoft’s position. Where is the Windows Tablet? Why are they insisting with Windows 7 as a choice for the tablet form factor? These are some of the questions people ask me a lot these days.
I have to admit I asked myself those questions at some point. And I’ve also asked myself why doesn’t Microsoft consider Windows Phone 7’s OS the obvious candidate to fight the tablet wars? After all, given the circumstances, it’s doing a good job in the smart phone space. After spending a fair amount of time thinking about this, I realized that throwing in the battle at this moment a WP7 based tablet (or tablets for that matter) would really qualify in the “rush in with a fix” category of moves. Let me explain why.
The most important reason is that Microsoft and Windows own the (desktop, laptop, netbook) space. It would be fundamentally wrong to ignore this fact when developing strategies for the smart phone and tablet wars. And it would force Microsoft to fight the war without its most powerful weapon. I’ve said above at some point that I think the fundamental weakness of the tablet today is the fact it runs OSs initially developed for smart phones. Combine that with the form factor, and eventually you will find out after a while that it’s quite hard to perform productive work on the tablet. Pressure is high for a compelling Windows tablet, no doubt about it. Android and iOS are gaining more and more traction every day, including in the enterprise. Yet more and more tablet owners admit that after the initial enthusiasm of owning a tablet they end up back to the (desktop, laptop, netbook) for productive work. The fact is, neither the smart phone nor the tablet are yet in a position to kill the (desktop, laptop, netbook). It’s likely that for a few years at least, these worlds will coexist. Actually, I think this gives Microsoft a bit of space to think, prepare, and make the right move. Finally, it’s pretty obvious that both the smart phone and the tablet markets are in their infancy. There is a lot of room for growth, and, while the early players have a clear advantage, there’s always going to be room for quality products.
What should be Microsoft’s next move? I now believe it has to be Windows centered. Not Windows 7 because, despite it’s awesome qualities, Windows 7 is not really suitable for touch devices. Microsoft’s next move also needs to capitalize on the strengths of Windows vs. the weaknesses of today’s tablets. In a nutshell, Microsoft needs to deliver a new Windows that’s ready for the next killer device. What’s that device? I dare to predict it’s the one that will combine the efficiency of the laptop with the mobility of the tablet. Many say the smart phone and/or the tablet are today’s new PCs. Turns out they are not. At least not yet. But the day is coming, there’s no doubt about it.
My vision is about a device that can act as a regular PC when needed (keyboard, mouse, power, and so on) and as a tablet in the mean time. Think how you’d feel if you could just detach you laptop’s screen and make it a tablet. The intelligent OS that powers your device knows how to adapt to context. When the screen is docked, it works like a regular PC. When the screen is loose, it changes the user experience to one that is better suited for touch. It also detects proximity, so when you’re around the main body of your device, you can still take advantage of it’s computing power, storage capabilities and even it’s internet connection. Ironically, seems to me the perfect name for this next killer device is Tablet PC. The power of the PC combined with the flexibility of the tablet.
Well, it might take a while until my vision turns into reality. But it’s quite obvious to me that the next big thing waiting around the corner is the merge between the tablet and laptop/netbook concepts. As long as Microsoft is capable of delivering in a reasonable amount of time a Windows OS that materializes the promise of this new killer device, (Microsoft, Windows) remains on solid ground for the foreseeable future. From what I’ve seen in the past 12 months, despite the pressure and bad moves from the past, Microsoft is preparing the right move.
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