Many of my friends and colleagues ask me what’s in store for 2010 in the Microsoft ecosystem. Among all the things going on in 2010, I think there are three of them that will generate the largest impact: cloud, entertainment, and development. At the same time, they happen to be crucial challenges that need to be met by the Redmond giant.

Starting with 2010, Windows Azure and all the other stuff related to cloud computing goes live (by live I mean we will start using it on a commercial basis). It is a huge investment as well as a significant technological development that will definitely impact dramatically the way we architect and develop software solutions. Technically, I think Microsoft’s cloud computing offer is exceptional. My concern with it is from the commercial point of view, since there is no “entry level” offering to match enthusiasts, hobbyists and beginner developers. I can’t help thinking back on the long history of Windows. Much of its success was (and still is) due to the ease of software development as well as to the hordes of developers and enthusiasts who felt in love with the platform. So, the big challenge for Microsoft in 2010 when it comes to cloud computing is by no means a technical one (I think they are right on the spot with the technical part). The big challenge is finding a way to make the Azure cloud appealing and (why not) sexy for all the categories of developers, in order to get that critical mass that will turn it into a successful platform.

The second big thing in 2010 will be entertainment. And when I say entertainment, I actually say two things: mobile devices and gaming. One makes me cry, the other makes me laugh. Let me explain… For some reason, Microsoft is consistently loosing ground in the mobile market. The new Windows Phone concept, based on Windows Mobile 6.5, is far better then its predecessor, Windows Mobile 6.0/6.1. Unfortunately, it’s still far from competitor offerings. And it’s not the business side of things that has issues but the “coolness factor” and all the other things that make phones the entertainment centers of our daily lives. Piece by piece, Microsoft does have the technologies and devices. There is that phenomenal gizmo called Zune HD which is in my opinion the best candidate for the killer phone of 2010. There is also that fantastic technology called Silverlight which went like fireworks in 2009, gaining incredible traction among software developers as well as designers. All that’s needed is to mix this stuff together and make it lightning fast (Microsoft Zune Phone with Silverlight anyone???). That’s one challenge Microsoft MUST address somehow in 2010. The other entertainment challenge (the one that puts a smile on my face) is the gaming part. With XBOX’s Project Natal (the game console that doesn’t need controllers) Microsoft will impact significantly the world of gaming. Still, 2010 might bring some other über-cool things to gamers like cloud gaming for instance. I know, it sounds a bit far-fetched but a look at www.onlive.com will probably puzzle you a bit :).

Finally, the third big thing in 2010 in the Microsoft ecosystem will be development. A new CLR version in .NET Framework 4 (the first one since version 2.0) as well as a brand new Visual Studio (build with Windows Presentation Foundation) will bring significant improvements to both on-premises and cloud-based software development. Although the promise is great, Microsoft still has to sort out some performance issues (which are quite obvious in the Beta versions). And yes, it’s still 32-bit, unfortunately. A 64-bit version of Visual Studio is another huge challenge Microsoft has to begin addressing in 2010.

Quite obviously there are many more big things that will go on in 2010 in the Microsoft ecosystem, but my strong belief is that the ones I mentioned above will have the largest impact. And, as I mentioned before, they are in the same time some of the biggest challenges ever for Microsoft.

In the past two weeks I had the chance to talk to several architects and dev leads about Microsoft’s strategy for distributed software solutions. One thing that caught my attention was a bit of a recurring confusion related to the AppFabric concept, so I thought it would be a good thing to make a few remarks on the matter.

First of all, we’re dealing today with two distinct AppFabric “editions”: Windows Azure platform AppFabric and Windows Server AppFabric. And to much of some people’s surprise, they are dealing with slightly different things. The big and obvious difference is that one of them is a cloud technology while the other is an on-premise one.

Second, I really have a hard time understanding why on earth did Microsoft go on the path of using the same name for two (apparently) rather different sets of technologies. Somehow reminds me of the .NET Framework 3.0 which is not actually a new framework since it still runs on the 2.0 CLR :) Well…

Windows Azure platform AppFabric is the thing that we used to call “.NET Services” (remember it from all the slides?) and that helps developers connect services and apps in the cloud or on-premises. Two of the most important things that it provides are a Service Bus for connectivity and Access Control for federated authorization. You can learn more about this technology at http://msdn.microsoft.com/en-us/azure/netservices.aspx.

On the other hand, Windows Server AppFabric is what you get by driving Windows Server with high velocity through Dublin…. To be more specific, Windows Server AppFabric (Beta 1 is currently available) is the beta outcome of two technologies previously named “Velocity” and “Dublin”. “Velocity” was the name of the distributed caching technology while “Dublin” was the name of the WF and WCF services management one. Consequently, Windows Server AppFabric merges these technologies into a platform with three core capabilities: distributed caching, workflow management, and service management. You can learn more about this at http://msdn.microsoft.com/en-us/windowsserver/ee695849.aspx.

Since AppFabric (regardless whether it’s the cloud stuff or the on-premises one) is going to have a huge impact on the architecture of our distributed applications built on the Microsoft Application Platform, I’ll get back in the coming weeks with a more detailed analysis of the architectural challenges it tries to address.

Read my latest article published in the Microsoft Architecture Journal where I talk about 10 easy steps to ... fail a Business Intelligence project. You can find the PDF version here .